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18/01/2010
The forecasts on which the Highways Agency bases its roadbuilding decisions are inaccurate, an environmental group claims - leading to a billion pounds a year being "gambled" on roads.
The Campaign for Better Transport says its analysis of the agency's own reports reveals that forecasts underestimate the increase in traffic of major schemes, along with their impact on air quality, noise and emissions. In addition, the group says, two-thirds of bypasses simply displace the congestion they are designed to relieve.
It has now called for a moratorium in spending on new roads until the Government can improve the accuracy of its forecasts.
The group's claims relate to project evaluation reports, commissioned by the agency to examine major projects one and five years after they are completed. It says that for the four most recent projects for which five-year reports are available - the A6 Great Glen Bypass, the A650 Bingley Relief Road, the A11 Roundham Heath to Attleborough and the A27 Polegate Bypass - the forecasts have proved inaccurate.
Moreover, the group says that in 2008, a Highways Agency-commissioned study into one-year reports found similar problems with the accuracy of forecasts.
Explaining that ministers' investment decisions depend on the agency's analyses, Campaign for Better Transport's roads and climate campaigner Richard George said that taxpayers "must know that their money is being well spent".
"Instead, they're being fobbed off with half-baked calculations which are little better than guesswork," he added.
"The Government cannot justify spending over £1 billion a year on road projects which their own reports show aren't solving people's transport problems."
However, a spokesperson for the Highways Agency told The Telegraph that the four schemes in question had improved safety, reduced congestion and provided value-for-money, along with "improving the local environment for many residents".
"To ensure decisions are made using the most robust information, we use the latest data and traffic modelling methods available to us," he added.
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