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15/01/2010
The widespread use of zero-emission vehicles running on hydrogen fuel cells is further away than the car industry claims, a University of Oxford study has concluded.
And the study's authors say that, with the majority of cars likely to rely on the internal combustion engine until 2050, the best way to reduce emissions from personal transport would be through a "drastic downscaling" of vehicles' size and weight.
The study's findings contrast with messages put forward by car makers. In September 2009, eight manufacturers including Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM and Renault/Nissan issued a joint letter of understanding, in which they stated: "[We] strongly anticipate that from 2015 onwards a quite significant number of fuel cell vehicles could be commercialised."
The signatories also called for a European network of hydrogen filling stations to be established by 2015, in preparation for such vehicles.
However, research fellow Oliver Inderwildi, who leads the Future of Mobility project within Oxford University's Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, told The Times that car makers needed "to be more honest" about the choices.
"Their argument is that people can continue to drive 4X4s because in a couple of years they will be able to switch to a fuel cell 4X4.
"We think that won't happen and that we must instead reduce fuel consumption by going for lighter and smaller cars," he said.
A spokesperson for the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders told the paper that the study was pessimistic, and that it expected mass-market electric vehicles by 2020, with fuel-cells reaching the mainstream 5-10 years later. However, Richard Hebditch, campaigns director for the Campaign for Better Transport, said it showed "that we can't just rely on electric and low-emission vehicles to cut carbon emissions from transport".
"The Committee on Climate Change's annual progress report also showed that even with the most optimistic forecasts, electric vehicles will take time to come in," he told Admiral News. "We need to start making cuts now if we're to manage the transition to a low-carbon transport system effectively, and the Committee on Climate Change made clear that the distance travelled by car must come down year on year.
"[Both these reports] show how important it is that the political parties set out coherent plans at the general election on how they'll make public transport, walking and cycling much more viable options for people."
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